Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For July 5

Stephen Kolek has a massive 9.20 ERA/1.57 WHIP during 3 home starts in 2025. Patrick Corbin has reverted back to his customary bade form he shown in recent seasons. Corbin has posted a hefty 6.43 ERA/1.67 WHIP over his last 4 starts. Both teams' bullpens have been very good during the past week. So, we're going to eliminate them from the handicapping equation and look to take advantage of these 2 starting pitchers' struggles. 

For a more detailed analysis on this matchup, and a bonus free winner in the Astros/Dodgers game, watch the video below.

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3% LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): Last night saw the Dodgers suffer their worst home loss since moving to Chavez Ravine all the way back in 1962. It was an 18-1 final. That score was downright shocking to me, not only because I still have the Dodgers power-rated as the best team in baseball, but because they allowed that many runs to a team that came in having scored three or fewer in 10 of its previous 18 games. The Astros have been hot, winning 17 of their last 22, but it’s important to note they are just .500 on the road (22-22) for the season and have played mostly sub-.500 teams during this recent surge. 

Now the Dodgers are certainly far from a sub-.500 team, and the Astros sure clobbered them last night. But it’s important to have some perspective and realize that was “just one game.” The Dodgers are 15-4 their last 19 games and have suffered B2B losses since June 6th-7th. Shohei Ohtani, celebrating his 31st birthday, will be both hitting and pitching tonight. He is expected to open for two innings. I know that means we’ll have to rely on a Dodgers’ bullpen that was obviously terrible last night. But suffice to say, we won’t be seeing anything near the level of ineptitude that was on display in the series opener. 

What we will definitely need is some more offense from the Dodgers. Facing Framber Valdez, who has not allowed a run in his last two starts (13 IP), is not an easy matchup. That’s evident by the fact the Astros are 10-0 in Valdez’s last 10 starts! But, remember that the Dodgers do lead MLB in scoring at home by a wide margin (6.04 runs per game). After a loss this season, LA is 21-11 and winning by an average margin of 1.5 runs per game. This is one of the few times the public might be “fleeing” from Dodger Blue. I’ll jump on board. 3% LA Dodgers (Play to -160) 

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San Francisco starter Logan Webb projects to give up just 2.0 runs with a 2.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  Athletics’ lineup has hit just .073 (3-41) with a weak .205 OPS against Webb in his career.  The Athletics will start Luis Severino.  The righty projects to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.  With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Saturday night.

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F5 GIANTS (-0.5) vs ATHLETICS

Webb vs Severino. Enough said. Severino has been throwing batting practice for about a month and has been lit up at home in Sacramento this season going 0-7 in those starts. While Webb is better at home, he is still far and away the better starting pitcher in this matchup and I expect the Giants to get to him before the A's get to Webb. Lay the half run in the F5 with the Giants. 

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929 Pittsburgh at Seattle

Now on a 12-4 run with these Free Plays, looking to continue on Saturday with a nice underdog. The Pirates are playing their best ball of the season, and rookie Mike Burrows is rounding into form. After initial struggles, he's now become a pretty solid member of this Pirates rotation.

He takes on Luis Castillo who is just living on reputation at this time in his career. His Statcast page show a lot of blue, which is below league average. First percentile in Extension, 14th percentile in Barrel Percentage, and 10th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. This line is simply too high based on how these teams have played as of late.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

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Yes, it's Coors Field. Yes, hitting conditions are going to be very favorable. Yes, we have two starting pitchers that have a combined record of 5-16 this season. But you still need two lineups to put the bat on the ball to score a dozen runs, regardless of the conditions or the opponent. We only saw five runs in Friday's contest and we certainly wouldn't be shocked if we saw another low-scoring affair on Saturday. The Rockies and White Sox have the two worst offenses in baseball against right-hand pitching this season. Chicago is hitting .215 (last) with a .294 on-base percentage (No. 29) and a 76 wRC+ (No. 29). Colorado is hitting .231 (No. 27) with a .292 on-base percentage (last) and a 74 wRC+ (last). Colorado's Germán Márquez is having one of those unicorn seasons where he's pitching better at Coors Field than on the road. Márquez has a 4.32 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP at home this season compared to a 6.48 ERA with a 1.72 WHIP on the road. In his last home start against the Dodgers, he was nearly perfect through the first three innings (one single allowed) but his day was ruined in the fourth inning when the Rockies committed two errors. Márquez has allowed a total of three earned runs in his last four starts (20.1 innings). Chicago's bullpen should be in good shape for this one after Adrian Houser went 8.0 innings on Friday. Jonathan Cannon is still ramping up after coming off the IL in June and hasn't gone past 3.0 innings since his return, but with a fully-available bullpen, Will Venable will be able to find favorable matchups in the second half of this contest. The under is 26-17-2 in Chicago’s road games this season.

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The Dodgers got absolutely embarrassed yesterday. The 18-1 loss was their worst in the history of Dodger Stadium. With Ohtani on the mound, they'll get off to a much better start today. Ohtani, who turns 31 today, threw the hardest pitch of his career in his last start. Currently, he's being used like a multi-inning “opener,” as he builds up his strength. He's likely to be followed by Justin Wrobleski, who has thrived in long relief situations. While Ohtani won't be around long, Wrobleski has a stellar 1.48 ERA in five appearances (24 1/3 innings) coming out of the bullpen. Last time out, Wrobleski delivered six shutout innings, allowing just three hits. He's recorded 16 K's against only three walks, over his past three appearances. Of course, Valdez has been red hot for the Astros. That said, he hasn't been as good on the road (3.78 ERA compared to 1.83 at home) and his lone career start at Dodger Stadium didn't go well though, as he allowed five runs in five innings. I like the Dodgers to bounce back. 

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